During Pibroch’s post-show discussion at the Lemon Tree on 2nd April one of the topics that was raised was the climate impacts of the digital economy and the value we do or do not derive from it.
So here I am uploading a post to a data centre and here you are reading this post. And of course I think it is a worthwhile thing to do…why else would I be writing and uploading it? It is part of our global dialogue…our conversation. And I hope, in reading it, you will find it worthwhile too. BUT…
The comments at the Lemon Tree got me wondering – and reading – about internet related power consumption and its associated climate impact.
According to the IEA, datacentres and the like consumed about 1% of total electricity demand in 2021. Down in the noise, yes?
Well…maybe not! Industry figures suggest demand for digital ‘services’ is growing rapidly and will continue to grow in ways which may outstrip the capacity for energy-improvement efficiency in the sector (which has had a good track-record in previous decades).
Source: Hypotheses for primary energy use, electricity use and CO2 emissions of global computing and its shares of the total between 2020 and 2030 : ANDERS S.G. ANDRAE
While the curve above indicates the overall consumption forecasts, the table below, from the IEA source indicates both the scale of the growth in energy consumption and the sectors of the digital economy which are growing at the quickest rates.
Source: Data Centres and Data Transmission Networks – Analysis – IEA
Obviously, translating from instructions per second (IPS) to Joules(J) to Watts(W) to tonnes of carbon (tCO2 ) is a bit bamboozling. Especially when bulked up to many powers of 10. So, just to help a bit:
EJ – Exajoule = 1018 Joules
TWh – Terawatt Hour = 109 kWh = 3.6×1015 Joules
ZIPS – Zeta Instructions Per Second = 1020 instructions per second
GIPJ = Giga Instructions per Joule = 109 Instructions per joule
MtCO = Million Tonnes of CO2
The other key parameter is the transient cumulative response to cumulative carbon emissions – TCRE. The most recent IPPC estimate in 2021 suggested a TCRE of 1.4°C–2.2°C per Tt C. 1 TtC (Teratonne of carbon) = 3.7 Tt of CO2.
So: taking the mode of the TCRE range,
270,000 MtCO2 = 1.8 degrees Centigrade of global warming.
80% of global electricity comes from fossil fuels at present and demand keeps going up.
Source : Energy mix – Our World in Data
The IEA and IPCC project demand to increase continuously through the next decade and the fossil fuel share not to decline much.
Meanwhile, Andrae (see above) forecasts the percentage share of global electricity demand from the digital economy to rise from around 7% at present (including all end devices like smart phones and tablets) to 14% by 2030. That 14% of a bigger number is 260% absolute growth.
In addition, he has calculated energy consumption associated with the use of end devices (such as smart phones) and their manufacture.
The resulting modelling (using lifecycle Monte Carlo simulation) indicates an eyewatering 2.11 Gigatonnes of CO2 by 2030. Using the TCRE above, that’s a rise of 0.014 degrees PER ANNUM from the digital economy. Significant? Perhaps when we’re already barrelling towards failure to contain global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees and possibly well on the way to 3 degrees. Every little helps!
Source: Hypotheses for primary energy use, electricity use and CO2 emissions of global computing and its shares of the total between 2020 and 2030 : ANDERS S.G. ANDRAE
Some sources (e.g. IEA) argue that the sector – especially data centres – have been successful in mitigating impacts – for example by contracting to power 100% of their growth from renewable energy suppliers. But, as with the carbon offset, this might salve the consciences of their customers and shareholders this only withholds renewable energy from other , perhaps more vital, purposes.
The 80% of the global power mix currently provided by fossil fuels serves different sectors and with different levels of energy efficiency.
Source : Final consumption – Key World Energy Statistics 2021 – Analysis – IEA
Once again, these IEA figures pose key questions around our freedoms to produce and consume. The 169 EJ provided by oil is 50 EJ greater than the other two fossil fuel sources combined (though coal has a lower conversion efficiency so far as emissions are concerned).
Over 60% of oil-energy consumption goes into travel (aviation, road, rail and navigation). The freedom to travel or the freedom to browse, confer or even 3D print? The ethical problem in the affluent 10% is, I think, that we so often choose to enjoy both freedoms within an infrastructure that locks us in to both high-carbon travel and isolating digital interactions. Then we bring our holiday digital photos home, uploaded them to cloud-data servers and never look at 90% of them again.
DIGITAL CLEANUP DAY – Digital Cleanup Day
Waste in digital storage is still wasted energy. The prize in other sectors might be greater but as I’ve said, e very little helps. And who needs cybercurrency anyway? I mean, what’s that about?
