After Perry Anderson

I’ve heard that climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health (very high confidence). There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all (very high confidence).[2]

I’ve heard that if warming exceeds a specified level such as 1.5°C, it could gradually be reduced again by achieving and sustaining net negative global CO2 emissions. This would require additional deployment of carbon dioxide removal, compared to pathways without overshoot, leading to greater feasibility and sustainability concerns. Overshoot entails adverse impacts, some irreversible, and additional risks for human and natural systems, all growing with the magnitude and duration of overshoot. (high confidence)[2]

I’ve heard that global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, with unequal historical and ongoing contributions arising from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production across regions, between and within countries, and among individuals (high confidence).  [2]

I’ve heard that the rffectiveness of adaptation in reducing climate risks is documented for specific contexts, sectors and regions (high confidence). Examples of effective adaptation options include:

• cultivar improvements,
• on-farm water management and storage,
• soil moisture conservation,
• irrigation,
• agroforestry,
• community-based adaptation,
• farm and landscape level diversification in agriculture,
• sustainable land management approaches,
• use of agroecological principles and practices (high confidence).

I’ve heard that ecosystem-based adaptation  approaches such as urban greening, restoration of wetlands and upstream forest ecosystems have been effective in reducing flood risks and urban heat (high confidence).            [2]

I’ve heard that Big Oil profits soared to nearly $200bn in 2022

I’ve heard that Saudi Aramco announced its highest annual profits as a listed company in 2022-23 : $161.1 billion. ExxonMobil reported the highest profits to date for any Western oil company with $59.1bn.

Other oil & gas companies announcing record profits included:

• Shell $39.9bn
• Chevron $36.5bn
• TotalEnergies $36.2bn
• BP $27.7bn [4]

I’ve heard that while they account for just 1% of global emissions, the world’s Least Developed Countries have seen 99% of the deaths from climate and weather related disasters.[5]

I’ve heard that between 2008 and 2016, 21.5 million people were displaced by climate related disasters – more than those fleeing war or persecution – as extreme weather events continued to claim lives and livelihoods across the globe.[5]

I’ve heard that  900 million people living in coastal zones at low elevations – one out of every ten people on earth. Sea level rise poses ‘unthinkable’ risks for the planet.[9]

I’ve heard that one million species teeter on the brink of extinction, due to habitat destruction, fossil fuel pollution and the worsening climate crisis.[11]

I’ve heard that the USA has released more than 509GtCO2 since 1850 and is responsible for the largest share of historical emissions, 20% of the global total.[1]

I’ve heard that hard and soft limits to adaptation have been reached in some ecosystems and regions. Maladaptation is happening in some sectors and regions. [2]

I’ve heard that current global financial flows for adaptation are insufficient for, and constrain implementation of, adaptation options, especially in developing countries (high confidence)               [2]

I’ve heard that public and private finance flows for fossil fuels are still greater than those for climate adaptation and mitigation (high confidence).[2]

I’ve heard that individual livelihoods have been affected through, for example, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, human health and food security, with adverse effects on gender and social equity. (high confidence)[2]

I’ve heard that climate refugees currently sit outside of international protections  [5]

I’ve heard Exxon knew about the inevitable impact of Climate Change in 1971 [6]

I’ve heard that, in 2022, BP invested £3,800 million  and Shell in fossil fuel development  but only £300 million on renewables.[8]

I’ve heard that global inequality in 2020 is still substantially larger than in 1820   [10]

I’ve heard that allocating a fraction of global tax revenues paid by multinationals and billionaires to all countries on the basis of their population would radically transform the capacity of national states in Sub-Saharan Africa or in South Asia to finance investment in human capital, equipment and infrastructure. [10]

I’ve heard that a substantial ‘emissions gap’ exists between global GHG emissions in 2030 (associated with the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26) and those associated with modelled mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot or limit warming to 2°C (>67%) assuming immediate action (high confidence). This would make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century (high confidence)     [2]

I’ve heard that the UK government, the country that pioneered the burning of fossil fuels for industrial use wants to stop the boats carrying refugees from an increasingly uninhabitable South.[3]

I’ve heard that oil companies in the UK have the most profitable conditions for offshore oil and gas companies in the world. [8]

I’ve heard that oil & gas workers in the UK demand clear, accessible pathways out of high carbon jobs[8]

I’ve heard that between-country inequality remains very high in absolute terms in 2020: it is roughly at the same level as in 1900.  [10]

I’ve heard that the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th century, first in Britain and then in the rest of Europe, depended on large-scale extraction of raw material (especially cotton) and energy (especially in the form of wood) from the rest of the world – extraction achieved through coercive colonial occupation.[10]

I’ve heard that the choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years (high confidence).[2]

I’ve heard that with further warming, climate change risks will become increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climatic and non-climatic risk drivers will interact, resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions. Climate-driven food insecurity and supply instability, for example, are projected to increase with increasing global warming, interacting with non-climatic risk drivers such as competition for land between urban expansion and food production, pandemics and conflict. (high confidence)[2]

I’ve heard that In Syria, some 1.3-1.5 million people were on the move from drought-stricken regions before a single gunshot was fired.[5]

I’ve heard that in 2018, public and publicly mobilised private climate finance flows from developed to developing countries were below the collective goal under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement to mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency on implementation (medium confidence).[2]

I’ve heard that widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people (high confidence). Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected (high confidence).[2]

I’ve heard that the agreement to “phase down” coal under the Glasgow Climate Pact has largely been ignored by the big coal countries.              [7]

I’ve heard that land-use change and forestry added some 786GtCO2 during 1850-2021, amounting to nearly a third of cumulative total, with the remaining two-thirds (1,718GtCO2) from fossil fuels and cement.[1]

I’ve heard that, in all regions, increases in extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (very high confidence). The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases (very high confidence) and the incidence of vector-borne diseases (high confidence) have increased. In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high confidence), trauma from extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture (high confidence). Climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in Africa, Asia, North America (high confidence), and Central and South America (medium confidence), with small island states in the Caribbean and South Pacific being disproportionately affected relative to their small population size (high confidence).[2]

I’ve heard that COP27 closed with a breakthrough agreement to provide loss and damage funding for vulnerable countries hit hard by floods, droughts and other climate disasters.  But that the details remain to be hammered out over the coming year – who should pay into the fund, where this money will come from and which countries will benefit. [5]

I’ve heard that in terms of cumulative per capita emissions, Canada ranks in first place, followed by the US, Estonia, Australia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Russia.  [1]

I’ve heard that climate resilient development is enabled when governments, civil society and the private sector make inclusive development choices that prioritize risk reduction, equity and justice, and when decision-making processes, finance and actions are integrated across governance levels, sectors, and timeframes (very high confidence)[2]

I’ve heard that by 1830, British imports of cotton, wood, and sugar required the exploitation of more than 10 million hectares of cultivable land: or 1.5-2 times all the cultivable land available in the UK.[10]

I’ve heard that for every 1000 GtCO2 emitted by human activity, global surface temperature rises by 0.45°C (best estimate, with a likely range from 0.27 to 0.63°C)[2]

I’ve heard that the higher the magnitude and the longer the duration of overshoot, the more ecosystems and societies will be exposed to greater and more widespread changes in climatic impact-drivers, increasing risks for many natural and human systems. Compared to pathways without overshoot, societies would face higher risks to infrastructure, low-lying coastal settlements, and associated livelihoods. Overshooting 1.5°C will result in irreversible adverse impacts on certain ecosystems with low resilience, such as polar, mountain, and coastal ecosystems, impacted by ice-sheet, glacier melt, or by accelerating and higher committed sea level rise. (high confidence)[2]

I’ve heard that climate change currently affects at least 10,967 species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™, increasing the likelihood of their extinction. [13]

I’ve heard that the goldrush for gas continues and is counterproductive to the Paris Agreement. The energy crisis caused by Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has sent governments scrambling to shore up energy security, knocking climate action down the policy agenda, despite the fact that renewables, efficiency and electrification are by far the cheapest, fastest and most secure options.[7]

I’ve heard that income and wealth inequalities have been on the rise nearly everywhere since the 1980s, following a series of deregulation and liberalization programs which took different forms in different countries [10]

I’ve heard that Kate Forbes, candidate as Scottish First Minister, has suggested she would curb action to accelerate Scotland’s transition away from oil and gas and has warned the SNP against winding down the North Sea industry “too quickly”. [3]

I’ve heard that “Climate change [is] now found to be the key factor accelerating all other drivers of forced displacement. These persons are not truly migrants, in the sense that they did not move voluntarily. As forcibly displaced is not covered by the refugee protection regime, they find themselves in a legal void.”[5]

I’ve heard that an average adult individual, globally, earned £18,977 per year in 2021, and the average adult owned £82,841  but that these averages mask wide disparities both between and within countries. The richest 10% of the global population currently takes 52% of global income, whereas the poorest half of the population earns 8.5% of it. On average, an individual from the top 10% of the global income distribution earns £99,091 per year, whereas an individual from the poorest half of the global income distribution makes £3,181 per year [10]

I’ve heard that estimates of future CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructures without additional abatement already exceed the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C (high confidence). Projected cumulative future CO2 emissions over the lifetime of existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure are approximately equal to the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C (high confidence).[2]

I’ve heard that the government of the country that pioneered the burning of fossil fuels wants to automatically send human beings who arrive upon its shores to places om the Equator which will be uninhabitable within a few years.      [3]

I’ve heard that in 2020 within-countries inequality appears to be comparable in magnitude to the levels of  1910.  [10]

I’ve heard that modelled pathways, consistent with NDCs announced prior to COP26 until 2030 and assuming no increase in ambition thereafter, lead to a median global warming of 2.8 [2.1–3.4]°C by 2100 (medium confidence).       [2]

I’ve heard that extreme weather events – from floods and storms, to heatwaves and drought –displace an estimated 41 people each minute.  [5]

I’ve heard The UK Government remains legally committed to drilling every last drop of oil from UK waters.  [8]

I’ve heard that global wealth inequalities are even more pronounced than income inequalities. The poorest half of the global population barely owns any wealth at all, possessing just 2% of the total. In contrast, the richest 10% of the global population own 76% of all wealth. On average, the poorest half of the population owns £3,295 worth of goods per adult, but the top 10% own £626,022 worth of goods.[10]

I’ve heard that 73% of oil & gas companies in the UK invest nothing in renewable energy production in the UK.[8]

I’ve heard that failure from politicians to properly plan and support the transition to renewables is leaving workers totally adrift on the whims of oil and gas companies, and the planet to burn. The Scottish Government must pick up these demands and run with them as part of their just transition plan for the energy sector.[8]

I’ve heard that 250 and 400 million people will likely need new homes in new locations in fewer than 80 years.[9]

I’ve heard that policies implemented by the end of 2020 are projected to result in higher global GHG emissions in 2030 than emissions implied by NDCs, indicating an ‘implementation gap’ (high confidence). Without a strengthening of policies, global warming of 3.2 [2.2–3.5]°C is projected by 2100 (medium confidence).[2]

I’ve heard that due to relative sea level rise, current 1-in-100 year extreme sea level events are projected to occur at least annually in more than half of all tide gauge locations by 2100 under all considered scenarios (high confidence). Other projected regional changes include intensification of tropical cyclones and/or extratropical storms (medium confidence), and increases in aridity and fire weather (medium to high confidence)[2]

I’ve heard that massive LNG expansion plans will seriously compromise meeting the 1.5°C limit. The LNG capacity now under construction, coupled with expansion plans, could increase emissions by over 1.9 GtCO2e per year in 2030 above emission levels consistent with the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 scenario.[7]

I’ve heard that oil & gas workers in the UK demand that no community is left behind.[8]

I’ve heard that 3.3–3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change. Regions and people with considerable development constraints have high vulnerability to climatic hazards. Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security, with the largest adverse impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in

• Africa,
• Asia,
• Central and South America,
• Least Developed Countries
• Small Islands .
• The Arctic.

I’ve heard that 2010 and 2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low vulnerability. (high confidence].[2]

I’ve heard that the UK did not strengthen its target ahead of COP27, contrary to the Glasgow Climate Pact. Credible policies cover only 40% of the reductions needed to meet their NDC. The UK’s actions are not aligned with its fair share contribution: its either needs to strengthen its target or substantially increase its “Highly insufficient” climate finance.[7]

I’ve heard that, in terms of cumulative carbon emissions, China is second, after the USA, with 11%, followed by Russia (7%), Brazil (5%) and Indonesia (4%). The latter pair are among the top 10 largest historical emitters, due to CO2 from their land.[1]

I’ve heard that large post-colonial European nations, such as Germany and the UK, account for 4% and 3% of the global total, respectively, not including overseas emissions under colonial rule.[1]

I’ve heard that key barriers to adaptation are

• limited resources,
• lack of private sector and citizen engagement,
• insufficient mobilization of finance (including for research),
• low climate literacy,
• lack of political commitment,
• limited research
• slow and low uptake of adaptation science,
• low sense of urgency       [2]

I’ve heard that in urban areas, observed climate change has caused adverse impacts on human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure. Hot extremes have intensified in cities. Urban infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and negative impacts to well-being. Observed adverse impacts are concentrated amongst economically and socially marginalised urban residents. (high confidence)[2]

I’ve heard that several mitigation options, notably

• solar energy,
• wind energy,
• electrification of urban systems,
• urban green infrastructure,
• energy efficiency,
• demand-side management,
• improved forest- and crop/grassland management,
• reduced food waste and loss,

are technically viable, are becoming increasingly cost effective and are generally supported by the public.

I’ve heard that from 2010– 2019 there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of solar energy (85%), wind energy (55%), and lithium ion batteries (85%), and large increases in their deployment, e.g., >10x for solar and >100x for electric vehicles (EVs), varying widely across regions.[2]

I’ve heard that international climate finance increased by only 4% in 2020 and remains nowhere near the level sufficient to support the implementation of additional emissions reductions in developing countries. No developed country has a better rating than ‘Insufficient’ on finance. All need to substantially scale up their level of commitment.[7]

I’ve heard that, at a global level, emissions from land use and forestry have remained relatively consistent over the past two centuries. They amounted to around 3GtCO2 in 1850 and stand at roughly 6GtCO2 today, despite huge shifts in regional patterns of deforestation over time.[1]

I’ve heard that addressing large inequalities in carbon emissions is essential for tackling climate change.  Global income and wealth inequalities are tightly connected to ecological inequalities and to inequalities in contributions to climate change. On average, humans emit 6.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2) per capita, per year. However, at the world level: the top 10% of emitters are responsible for close to 50% of all emissions, while the bottom 50% produce 12% of the total.[10]

I’ve heard that the USA, Russia, Germany, the UK, Japan and Canada, account for 10% of the world’s population, but 39% of cumulative emissions. China, India, Brazil and Indonesia. account for 42% of the world’s population, but just 23% of cumulative emissions 1850-2021.        [1]

I’ve heard that there are widening disparities between the estimated costs of adaptation and the finance allocated to adaptation (high confidence). Adaptation finance has come predominantly from public sources, and though a small proportion of global tracked climate finance was targeted to adaptation,  an overwhelming majority to mitigation (very high confidence). Although global tracked climate finance has shown an upward trend since 2014, current global financial flows for adaptation, including from public and private finance sources, are insufficient and, therefore, constrain implementation of adaptation options, especially in developing countries (high confidence)[2]

I’ve heard that deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years (high confidence)    [2]

References

1 Analysis: Which countries are historically responsible for climate change? – Carbon Brief

2 AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 — IPCC

3 BBC News

4 Energy News

5 Environmental Justice Foundation | Protecting climate refugees (ejfoundation.org)

6 Exxon Knew about Climate Change Almost 40 Years Ago – Scientific American

7 Massive gas expansion risks overtaking positive climate policies | Climate Action Tracker

8 Our-Power-Report.pdf (foe.scot)

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